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Quantitative Investing: A Crisis Waiting to Happen?
in Investments
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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pwc-robotics-jobs-20170324-story.htm
Robots could take over 38% of U.S. jobs within about 15 years, report says
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your point is also great about humans may become stupid in some ways, but I think in other ways they will become really smart - learning how to leverage robots better.
- Walt Disney
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Well, a computer is just a computer. It gets an input, which is typically merely a plot of the stock value versus time, and tried to predict the optimal moment to invest and the optimal amount of investment. It perfects the probabilistic part of the stock value nature.
However, a computer, at least, at this stage of technological development cannot account for the factors happening in the world that can affect the stock value, but that cannot be easily put into numbers. For example, suppose you are investing in a Japanese fishing company. You learn from the news that, due to a very cold season, the fishing product is very scarce this year, hence the fish sales are going to be low and fishing companies are going to have their stocks severely depreciated. A smart investor will quickly pull their money out of the stock and invest in something else. But a computer might not see the upcoming catastrophe, thinking, "The current plots do not show anything unusual, so no need to worry!"
When we get to the point where AIs outsmart humans in a general economical analysis, then, of course, human participation in stock investment will become obsolete. However, at that point human involvement in almost anything will become obsolete, and stocks are in no way unique in this regard.
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